2 Oz your first year time line predictions are getting prophetic and the next 1-2 years are also likely, in part or in full, maybe even worse than we can imagine. The next two years will be pretty chaotic with Europe nationalism making a dangerous situation. Greece and Spain, along with Italy will likely be in full depression with Germany and the northern tier removing themselves from the Euro. The Euro bond losses will collapse most of the big EU banks with back wash to our big banks The Fed will likely print to bail out our banks and possibly some EU banks but the amount of funding will be in the tens of trillions. Inflation will start washing on to our shores. China will be in a hard landing free fall. The key indicators of Chinese problems are the increase in electrical usage ; now -0- now, and bank lending. Monetary policy is to print and print more. Russia will weaken due to much lower oil and gas prices with Europe using less fuel due to the depression in that zone. So your notion that inflation will ramp up and people will leave treasuries is clear. The Fed ZIRP must come to an end since no one will buy our junk bonds, forcing the Fed to buy 100% of the issuances. Rates could easily jump to 10% if any bonds are to be funded. Just like Spain and Italy paying 6-7%, we will be paying even more—in a Greece-like debt tsunami.
People will see gold and silver as a safe haven, bumping those prices upwards much like the 1979 time period when real inflation hit 11-12%. The $50 an ounce silver and $800 an ounce gold were reflective of scarcity and fear buying, piling on before someone bought up the gold and silver. The 30 year PM price desert will end with the coming problems. Silver could go to $400, an inflation adjusted price from the 1980 peak. Gold maybe $4-5,000 an ounce.
The US Economy will suffer badly due to European failures and a crushing drop in the US equity markets despite the plunge protection team. Dow and Gold could hit parity at 5,000. Depending on who is elected, the gun nazis could and should be curbed since we outnumber them 100 to1. But with a major drop in tax revenues on a personal, corporate and capital gains basis, the governments at states level will be even more bankrupt. The national government can print to pay its bills along with bailouts at every corner of the globe but I don’t thing the Fed won’t bail out the states. They will be on their own.
Martial law? Yes, on a local basis due to lack of food, welfare EBT failures and lost job hopes. Currency controls and bank holidays? We have currency controls now. try to get a foreign account. Don’t even think of trying to roll your silver or gold out in your car The detection equipment can see what you have in your vehicle.
I am pretty sure of some of this as some of the TBTF banks will cause bank runs and some real fear factor. If we get to TEOTHWAKI, Mad Max, Books of Eli, all bets are off. A few of my BOB were discussing this and the best place to bivvy. The head of our group will be emptying some homes next to his by measures best left to your imagination .
We battle plan for the worst and have set up a 1,200 gallon fuel depot in 55 gallon drums just in case. Water is not a problem with lake and wells. Meat is local with deer, elk and wild horses. BOBs are shooters and know how to dress a deer. Stocking large amounts of salt is vital We have medical supplies from a local business and enough lead futures and poppers for a small regional conflict.
I told him that the ’vil consists of pretty much 75% empty second and vacation homes. I have keys to a couple and Knox Boxes on many so we have nice empty homes to fill with our BOB. We have Food, guns, ammo, meds, skills and platoon strength men-at-arms and PMs (I am the self appointed silver bank as my contribution to our efforts) Money to buy important commodities will be vital to the effort. These are plans for the worst case and there is a chance this will happen if even for a short period period of 1-2 years. We also have about 3-4 years of long term food stores. I guess I diverged from predictions to prepper ideals Sorry
Your time line is close to mine. These events may come sooner or later but there is a pretty good chance they will transpire to one degree or level of severity or other. Keep the faith and stay safe