Submitted by SD Contributor Marshall Swing:
Gold & Silver COT Report 1/25/13:
Commercials took 1,547 contracts off their longs on the week and increased a huge 3,819 shorts to end the week with 48.14% of all open interest, an increase of 0.18% in their share since last week, and now stand as a group at 236,990,000 ounces net short, which is an increase of 26,830,000 net short ounces from the previous week.
Large speculators upped their total by 2,900 longs and also added 379 short contracts increasing their net long position to 155,465,000 ounces, an increase in their net long position of just over 12.6 million ounces from the prior week.
Small speculators increased 1,050 longs to their total and sold off a sizeable 1,795 short contracts for a net long position of 81,525,000 ounces an increase of almost 10.8 million ounces net long from the prior week.
Silver started the COT reporting week at about $31.37 and rose steadily to finish the period at $32.18 on a week that saw one brief raid, which I call a “readjustment” in position, then peaked at $32.48 on Wednesday. By the end of the calendar week, silver had fallen to $31.18
The producer merchant clearly changed directions, on Thursday, this past reporting period with the sale of 1,364 long contracts. From there the combined commercials picked up over 3,700 shorts.
Price fell steadily from the high on Wednesday of this week but there was no clear raids to be seen. There has been a reduction of total open interest of about 3,000 contracts over the last 3 days so speculators probably joined in on the selling for profits and that is the reason for the price reduction. When the numbers come out this week, I would not expect to see a major reduction in the commercial short position unless we have a major raid before Tuesday afternoon.
In gold is where the real battle seems to have taken place last week and there we see similar numbers in the movement and timing of contracts and the “readjustment” on Thursday of the period is even more marked as gold commercials took over 10,000 short contracts. Crossing of the $1700 psychological barrier was once again denied.
Overall, the charts in both metals do not reflect the unwinding of those new shorts since Tuesday’s COT close so I expect there is much more room to the downside.