Gold and silver both extended today’s massive gains on Friday’s Asian open, with silver tapping $35, and gold to $1775.
We expect silver to break through $35 on it’s 3rd attempt, after which it should quickly run to $35.75-$36. Look for a potential pull-back to occur near $37-$37.50, potentially taking silver back to $35 before the major up-move begins.
There is simply no major downside risk for gold and silver at the present with QE∞ now official Fed policy.
Let that sink in for a moment.
As we mentioned this afternoon, new ALL-TIME NOMINAL HIGH’S ARE LOCKED AND LOADED!! It is simply a matter of time.
Those who have been waiting on the sidelines for one final pull-back into the $1600′s for gold and $20′s for silver will either enter this market immediately, or else chase the runaway train as it leaves the station.
Silver’s vertical pop on Friday’s Asian open:
Gold also climbing through $1775. A weekly close above $1800 is now a definite possibility, which would set gold up for a run at it’s all time nominal high of $1915 before October!
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/images/live/s_silv.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/images/live/s_gold.gif)
Hello Everyone, I have been watching the board from the sidelines, but thats over now. I find this a very informative site, so I will do my best to help with that.
So up until now I believed there would be one more epic smash that I would use to finish moving my paper into my stack. Reading the above leads me to think otherwise, but I’m wondering about all the shorts that are still out there.
Could someone shed some light on that for me?
Thanks
@Phoenix: Welcome aboard.
In the grand scheme of things, you really shouldn’t worry too much about short-term declines. For every dollar’s worth of downside risk, there’s ten+ dollars worth of upside, and we’re talking about financial insurance here, first and foremost. Insurance isn’t something to mess around with. If one needs it for a given situation, one should buy it ASAP. If you’ve already accumulated a pile and feel your insurance need is covered, that’s a different story.
As for the short interest outstanding, it’s actually lower now relative to the last few years and the “managed retreat” aspect of the short-side manipulation behavior is something too few analysts (here and elsewhere) spend enough time talking about. In the near-term, paying more attention to momentum indicators like RSI and clear-cut pivot points on the chart (as Doc is doing above by shining a well deserved light on the $37 area) will generally be more helpful than obsessing on reports on commitment of traders data.
Another story that y’all are going to start hearing a heck of a lot more about concerns how JPM and gang will be going long silver and copper in clandestine accounts to get the hell out of the mess they’ve created for themselves. This is the path of extrication least resistance. JPM has already been doing this in the copper market and I can count on one hand how many analysts have figured this out and published the fact. Stay tuned. This story is going to get bigger as the strategy will be employed to a much greater extent in the months ahead — with both copper and silver and probably more long positions taken as offset trades. I should probably write a formal article about this because pretty much no one is talking about it and it’s pretty obvious the tactic is what JPM is going to use to lessen the blow of their existing silver short book.
@Flying-Wombat , I agree that JPM will likely soon (if not already) be going long in opaque dark markets. If they were to try to smash the silver market now with official QE3 the physical buying would overwhelm them. I believe the downside risk to silver currently is minimal, as you pointed out.
That sounds like an excellent post. We’ll be glad to post it in a prominent spot!
-Doc
@Phoenix Ditto the Wombat’s welcome. With QE to Infinity released I wouldn’t wait for a pull back for the classic entry point. There may not be one. The silver train has left the station. The risk is being unable to acquire physical silver at the retail level. It wouldn’t take much to dry up supply. I remember a few years ago there was a 6-8 week wait to get a green monster. Anyways, when silver crosses $50 you won’t care if you bought at $35 or $32.
Shorts are a good thing. It’s the shorts who are your built in buyers when the price starts to rise. They have to cover.
@Phoenix , welcome to the SD community, glad to have your contributions. As to your question, the commercial’s net short position set records all the way up to $49 in 2011. No reason to believe that’s not possible again.
Raids will come, but as FW mentioned, I believe it is all about controlling gold and silver’s ascent over the next 6-9 months. Silver nearly doubled in the 6 months after QE2 was announced. A similar move would put silver in the $60-$70 range by mid 2013. Silver has had it’s sharp correction and long boring consolidation over the past 15-16 months. Now it’s ready to excite again.
If you do decide to finish converting your paper fiats into phyzz and are interested in utilizing SD Bullion for your purchase I’ll make sure our bullion manager gives you an excellent deal.
Regardless, glad you’ve joined the community here.
-Doc
I have also been wondering about all of those commercial shorts. Is there a possibility that they will get together and try one more smash to get rid of them?
The shorts are alive and well. Until you see massive moves in the silver price, the shorts will always be there planning their next raid. When you see advancement in the price of silver of $5.00 to $10.00 in a 24 hour period, you’ll know someone else besides the shorts are in control of the silver price. Trying to get in on the next bottom is at best a crap shoot. Will the silver you buy in the comes days and weeks be a good investment when silver goes nuclear? Soon $35 silver is going to seem like a steal.
Silver is going over $100 an ounce. Whether you buy at $26 or $36 long term it will make no difference.
To prolong the current financial and banking system the central bankers have to print unlimited piles of fiat or the global banking system would soon collapse.
Gold and silver have intrinsic value. You can’t go wrong.
I was going to wait for a smash myself but pulled the trigger on Tuesday..I was nervous about it but glad I did it today..No looking back from here on out! I am ALL IN till the finish…
All aboard!!!!!!!!!!!!! Meeeeeep Meeeeeeeeeeeep
But then obviously the train gets boggled down a few times (uhm, by whom?) and then others can still jump aboard. perhaps some pal’omines who jump in last minute. Doesn’t matter. We have a big train and we’re very welcoming to all of you!! In the end all that matters, that even if it might be delayed a couple of times — which I think it will, and that might be good for some of us insider ppl as wel as some of those outsider ppl that jump aboard just in time — the train is leaving in the end, and we’re going to be on it!! Woo-hoo.
And as far as I’m concerned everyone who’s decent, who has his/her mind screwed on right, everyone who has empathy as well as logic and good-spriritness, everyone who values honesty, you’re all more than welcome aboard the silver train!
You and me and everyone here, we’re going to become the ones that matter. Judge wisely and softly where you can, hard and callous where you must. Just my humble opinion.
R3K
Loving the train ride. Thanks to all for making this a fun, informative site. Might soon be time to strap on our seat belts as the train lifts off the track – kinda like Back to the Future!
I’m all in, except for picking up the odd commemorative coin to mark this historic occasion.
Stack the smack, stack the smack! :p
I predict that silver will crash to $26 on September 29, the date of the Israeli strike on Iran. Nah, just pullin’ yer leg.
slugfest
‘half my weight in silver’
Once Silver passes $36 It will be April 2011 all over again, but this time it won’t stop short of $50. Instead it will shoot past it like a marathon runner through a finish line. After the QE8 announcement I dont know why anyone would wait and see? The writing is on the wall and it is screaming $100 Silver within a year or two. It is currently $34.61 spot.
During QE2 Silver moved on average $2 per month and closed the silver to gold ratio per month. During QE8 I expect $3-4 moves per month.
In the summer of 2010 Silver was in the high teens (roughly $18) during QE2 it shoot up to $49 in 2011. Thats an increase of 277%!!!!!!
A 277% increase with a starting point of $26 is $72!!!! So sometime between now and September 2013 Silver will jump that high. It may get smacked down here or there but that to me is the high. Then in the fall of 2013 Silver will shoot towards $100. Just my 2 cents.
Thanks for the great welcome everyone.
The points above make a lot of sense and its a refreshing change to be able to talk to people that think outside the pack. I only have one friend that stacks with me, and sometimes I wonder if we just feed off each other…
That being said I will be converting more to phyzz today and see how next week goes. The Canadian dollar gives me a few more % bonus right now as well.
@The-Doc thanks for the offer, but my paper is paper right now, and I like walking into my dealers and walking out with my Phyzz. I hate being tracked, and some call me paranoid (but i’m guessing less would call me that here
Thanks again everyone!
If there is no major downside risk on gold and silver’s price anymore, then tomorrow, I’ll go and buy more silver. I just hate to miss my chance when I could of bought an ounce of silver for 28$ from my local coin shop when the price of silver was at 27.50$ per ounce which was only 0.50$ over spot. I didn’t have enough cash so I could only buy one. Bye, bye 28$ per ounce, I’ll miss you! :’( I guess that I’ll go back to my old silver investment trick that the senior silver investors told me when I first started to buy silver about one year ago which was “You should not consider about how much you paid for an ounce of silver but how many ounces of silver you own.”
“It’s the shorts who are your built in buyers when the price starts to rise. They have to cover.”
Yes, that OR liquidate their short positions before their short positions liquidate them!
Too many crooks in this business how can anyone so sure?Net longs/shorts Cartells they taking the food from your mouth.I wish I had a strategy to beat theses crooks to their own game.Iv’e lost too much co’s of them.. No rules to this game .