While October is one of the weakest months for gold, November on the other hand is the strongest month. The data shows how gold’s strongest month for returns in the last 5, 10 years and 30 years is November – and by a significant degree. As per the ‘Gold Seasonality Table’ from Bloomberg , the 5 year average (2007-2011) saw returns of 5.6% and the 10 year average (2002-2011) saw returns of 5.1%. Gold’s out-performance in November is significant. The 10 year average data shows that September was the next strongest month with a 2.6% average return. Then came August at 2.3% and January at 2.2%.
From Goldcore:
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,723.25, EUR 1,330.59, and GBP 1,065.64 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,718.00, EUR 1,321.54, and GBP 1,065.89 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $32.60/oz, €25.25/oz and £20.26/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,576.50/oz, palladium at $612.80/oz and rhodium at $1,100/oz.
Gold climbed $11.70 or 0.68% yesterday and closed at $1,721.20. Silver surged to hit a high of $32.411 and subsequently gave up some of its gains but still finished with a gain of 1.51%.
The yellow metal remained steady as China’s PMI grew to 50.2 from 49.8. This was the first increase seen in three months and a reading greater than 50 signals expansion.
Gold broke above recent resistance at $1,720/oz yesterday ahead of the key nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow and the US Presidential election next week.
Gold dropped 2.8% during October, its first one-month decline since May but remains 10.2% higher so far in 2012.
Stock markets internationally struggled in October. The Dow finished the month with a 2.5% loss, with the S&P 500 off 2% and the NASDAQ down 4.5%. Tech darling stock Apple fell 10% in the month.
For the year, however, the Dow is still up 7.2%, with the S&P 500 up 12.3% and the NASDAQ up 14.3%.
The nearly 3% drop for gold represents another buying opportunity, possibly the last optimal intermediate buying opportunity for many months.
While October is one of the weakest months for gold, November on the other hand is the strongest month.
The data shows (see ‘Gold Seasonality Table’ and ‘Gold Seasonal 30 Years Chart’) how gold’s strongest month for returns in the last 5, 10 years and 30 years is November – and by a significant degree.
Gold Seasonality Table – November Returns – 5 and 10 Year Average Gains Of 5.6% and 5%
As per the ‘Gold Seasonality Table’ from Bloomberg , the 5 year average (2007-2011) saw returns of 5.6% and the 10 year average (2002-2011) saw returns of 5.1%
Gold’s outperformance in November is significant. The 10 year average data shows that September was the next strongest month with a 2.6% average return. Then came August at 2.3% and January at 2.2%.
The 5 year average data shows that February was the next strongest month with a 3.7% average return. Then came September at 3% and January at 2.2% (see chart above).
Gold Spot $/oz, May 2008-Nov. 2010 – (Bloomberg)
Interestingly, November’s maximum gain over the 5 and 10 year period was the 12.9% gain seen in November 2008 – the month President Obama was elected.
History never repeats but it often rhymes and we expect gold to again outperform in November.
Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
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NEWSWIRE
(Bloomberg) — Turkey Exchange Says Gold Imports Were 3.7 Tons Last Month
Silver imports were 20.2t in October, Istanbul Gold Exchange says on its website.
(Bloomberg) — Gold coin sales estimated at 59,000 oz vs 68,500 oz, data from the U.S. Mint website show. Silver coin sales fall to 3.153m oz from 3.255m.
(Bloomberg) — Mexico’s August Silver Production Totaled 344,804 Kilograms
Mexico’s August silver production was 344,804 kilograms, the National Statistics Agency said today on its website.
(Bloomberg) — SPDR Gold Trust Holdings Unchanged at 1,336.3 Tons by Yesterday
Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, were unchanged at 1,336.3 metric tons as of Oct. 31, according to figures on the company’s website.
The data was updated for the first time since Oct. 26 because the stock market was closed for two days for Hurricane Sandy and there was no information on holdings.
NEWS
Gold futures extend gains in Asia – Market Watch
Gold steady as investors await U.S. data, election – Reuters
Gold flat ahead of China PMI data – Reuters
Gold Set to Drop as China Manufacturing Boosts Economic Outlook – Bloomberg
COMMENTARY
Gold price to rally regardless of who is elected President – The Telegraph
Is Silver The New Gold? – The Perth Mint
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I’ve kind of committed an act of treason last month. I bought 1/10oz of gold instead of the usual silver bullion. However, it seems that my timing is right for chasing any fiat paper profits gold might bring… let’s hope it is 50% this time around instead of the usual 5% or so.
Great Idea, SB! I predicted that Gold may outstrip Silver for a while, as the BaselIII rules come online.
Gold = Tier1 asset on 1/1/13, remember?
@underRGRound Yeah, I remember now that you mention it… thank you for reminding me.
Clarification:
I predicted that Gold may outstrip Silver for a while, as the Basel (3) rules come online.
I did not see anyone else predicting this, but it’s kind of a no brainer. I say may because the bank$ter$ might not be able to hold Gold back (or want to) but they might use all their power against Silver. BUT, the skyrocketing Gold Prices will still have an upward pull on SILVER because Gold is shooting up so fast, Silver becomes more attractive. Don’t want anyone to base any investments on this, as in hoping Silver DROPS during Gold’s rise, because I am not saying that. IMO, Silver may lag, but not necessarily.
In other words, you prolly did well by buying some Gold, SB Old Chap!
What have you done!? You’re a traitor to this community! You disgust me! Just kidding lol! I also bought some gold pieces a few months ago and I keep stacking some copper and some nickel. I’m now planning to buy a 1/4 of an ounce of platinum.
LMAO I’ve just run out of Fiat so no more buying for a while. Just spent my VA pension that just came in today. Lol God I deserve that pension I Am Sick. Lol
My buying has been guns and bullets, hope to get back to silver next month
^^^PISTOL-PACKIN’ MAMA^^^
@MaryB lol
Unless @Marchas45 puts on his Blythe Suit again LOLz!
You have to pay on your own because you’re sick? Good thing that here in Canada, whenever you get sick, you get the healthcare for free.
@Sumkid
One thing you should learn to understand is nothing is free. That said Governments do not suplie a product, they TAX to pay themselves and to mandate laws.
What ever they put into law that is to make things cheep or as you said “Free”. The tax payer regardless weather they need the service or not pays for it.
Like this I mandate sumkid every day he goes to school has to bring a sandwich for someone he dosen’t know.
@427 Right on. In South Africa we say: “Nothing for Mahala!”
@427 Well, if that’s the case, then the only thing for free left on this planet is air that we breath in. Unless if the government taxes the quantity of air that we breath in.
@Sumkid
Yes in essence you do or a tax payer dose pay for air. We pay the Government to pass law to keep air quality to a standard. And they need government workers to enforce the laws.
Oh wow really? Are you serious? If that’s the case, then there is nothing in this universe that is free.
@Sumkid
No there is some free things. Your parents give you unconditional LOVE don’t they? And you return that love im sure. Think about it Kid some of the best things are free
@427 Yeah that’s true! At least those are free. But the problem between me and them is that they don’t like the fact that I stack physical gold and silver. They think that it is a waste of “money” even if I tried to explain them about the fundamentals of precious metals.
@Sumkid
Thats good you can see some free things in life. Your parents will understand that you are learning to save money, it’s just a deferent forum than there used to. One day they may have to say that little bugger was right.
I predict that Silver & Gold will jump if Obama is re-elected, after a short pause, barring massive price slams.
The reaction will be somewhat more delayed and subdued should Romney be elected. That is preferable to me,
as IMO it just buys us more time to STACK’EM & RACK’EM
What most of the people don’t have is patience so whenever gold loses some values in terms of dollars, they sell it quickly. Also, the 2011 gold and silver’s price high made a lot of people lose their dollars and because of that, less people are buying precious metals.
@Sumkid Exactly. They should be chasing intrinsic value, not fiat dollars.