Jim Sinclair, the man who predicted the current bull market in gold over a decade an a half ago has sent an email alert to subscribers this afternoon regarding the economic circumstances that will propel gold to and through $3,500/oz over the next 4 years.
Sinclair states that the Fed can and will provide 100% of whatever is required in every circumstance via QE, and that the result of the Fed’s non-economic buying of US Treasuries will be an ever lower dollar and escalating gold prices.
Sinclair’s full alert below:
From Jim Sinclair:
I have been under the weather with the flu for over a week. That actually gave me more time to work on various matters. One is my consideration of whether I should outline the potentials for 2013 in one essay or give you the various specific circumstances/alternatives/
decisions that will be the foundation of the market from 2013 to 2017.
I have decided one great tome is a waste of your time because the various concepts given all at once might lead to confusion rather than a clear conclusion. Therefore today I will present to you the fulcrum concept that everything balances on for the economy of 2013 to 2017.
In a technical sense, the Fed can finance 100% of whatever is required via QE under every possible circumstance. The result of meeting every seller of US treasuries with non-economic buying (QE) on a continuous basis would be an ever lower dollar. Any opinion that the Fed cannot do QE to infinity if they determine the need to maintain modest interest rates is simply and utterly wrong.
So what this entire equation for 2013 to 2017 stands on is a simple decision by the Fed: Will they? It is a political question, not an economic question. If it was a purely an economic decision QE would never have been utilized in 2008.
Respectfully,
Jim
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/images/live/s_silv.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/images/live/s_gold.gif)
Well here we go again. Four years? Sheeesh! What happened to the 5K, 10K predictions?
Heck “the future is always in front of us, like my Uncle the philosopher once said”. I say the future is today that was predicted over many, many, many, many yesterdays!!!!!!
Go figure, nobody really knows!
You said it Ranger, this could go on forever and my kids will see my wealth. Lol
Deflation will continue, in gold and silver (US Dollar devaluation). Gold must rise to balance the CB’s books. Nobody, even the great Mr. Sinclair can give dates and prices.
Sinclair called the 1980 top, 4 years before it happened, he called January 2011 $1650 gold and was off by 2 months. Sinclair has the theory and the timing right. Check out the debt ceiling graph to gold price. They correlate perfectly. In Feb we get another debt ceiling increase, as well as ongoing Treasury buying, which always rises gold. Gold goes up starting now.
Jim Sinclair along with a few others have exceptional track records.
PAY ATTENTION
DON`T TRY TO ANALYZE
LMAO who is analyzing we do pay attention and their predictions have been up and down. Hell I’m a positive person and I’m still waiting for the $100 spot price never mind the $49.00 price they all quoted 2 years ago. LMAO Keep Stacking cause I’m paying attention. Lol
Pay attention AND analyze what is going on.
I remember JIM SINCLAIR’s call just before the 2008 crash. pm stocks are ready to soar ”like a continental ballistic missile” but they sank like a rock instead …also mr. gold hismself is not telling us where he thinks gold will eventually go to, but instead expressing how much he trusts Alf Field … something s wrong about this picture coming from mr. gold himself… lmao … don’t put too much trust in this guy
Like my Uncle the philosopher once said to me. “Ranger don’t be a Jerk” Well I stopped being a Jerk right then, but I do know the difference when someone is pissing on my boots and telling me it’s raining!
HOW ABOUT THIS CLOWN ACT?
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/18_Rosen_-_Expect_Stunning_%24233_For_Silver_As_It_Begins_To_Soar.html
Sounds like everyone here is skeptical. I think that is a good thing. If we have another sideways year in the metals this year you guys won’t be heartbroken. I think it could go either way. Chances are, we will see an up year this year for the metals but how much is anyones guess. I expect a lot of volitility in silver also. If you have other ideas besides investing in metals please let us know. I have no other ideas. Have you noticed the very high silver premiums they are asking now? Terrible.
@Pollokeeper Yea I guess the dealers are trying to catch up with ebay prices but they forget ebay sellers have a big overhead. I’ll just keep looking for deals and go that route and buy on the dips.
When it goes over $35.50 then I’m through buying and I’ll just sit on my stack and watch it soar. Lol Keep Stacking
With premiums where they are right now you will pay more than 35.50 as it is right now for silver eagles. If the premiums stay high we will know there is an actual shortage. I am already just standing pat and waiting to see if we can get a strong rally. I believe that if its going to happen if will happen before summer.
London Futures live now. Don’t give a crap about MLK Day.
http://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures
In 1965 they took the Silver out of our coinage, all most nobody complained.
In 1971 they took us off the gold standard, all most nobody complained.
In 1973 they invented a gasoline shortage to see if we would line up and obey. We did.
In 1974 Gold became legal to buy at $35.00 an ounce. I did.
In 1981 Regan liquidated the US Silver reserves, daring us to buy. I did.
In 2013 the US Mint ran out of Silver Eagles in a very short time
MORAL OF THE STORY: PAY ATTENTION
@Silver Dollar
Doesn’t mean a tinkers damn what happened 50 years ago whatsoever. In 1971 our Nation was almost debt free, but tricky Dicky screwed the Pooch! So you bought Silver in or after 1981 after Reagan said so…So what? Today 85% of our people think Congress sucks, the entitled voted a Socio Commie into the Presidency, The Constitution of our country is being paved over by the elite Socialists Commie bastards and you are hanging on what happened 50 years ago?
The U S Mint sold out of ASE’s because of the demand, not because they are out of Silver! Do you also realize that The U S Treasury can condemn the American Silver Eagle to face value only and regardless of bullion ounce value? Hey we are dealing with a emormous criminal giant and these bastards will not tread lightly my friend.
Ranger, you dim bulb. The point is I WAS PAYING ATTENTION.
Try to grasp the big picture. No the mint didn`t run out of Silver, they ran out of Eagles. The demand out stripped production.
DO YOU GET IT. THINK ABOUT IT.
WHAT HAPPENS TODAY, EFFECTS TOMORROW
You have a point there Ranger. I have more chance of talking Angelina Jolie out of her silk knickers than KWN has of talking up silver. I always find people pissing on my neck and telling me it’s raining. But some people are so dumb they couldn’t pour piss out of that same boot if the instructions were printed on the heel.
@AGXIIK
By no means am I a Silver basher and only want success for all who stack. It just irritates the Hell out of me with all the Silver Gurus who write articles for The Doc, that mostly they whistle through their asses, and “Soon” gets farther and farther away.
Pento, Turk, Sprott, Sinclair, Brother John, Ferguson, Wiley and all the others that are too long to chain on the ones stated should get together at one time and select one spokesman to let us all know what dots are connected for all of us here and KWN less all of the charts that don’t mean Caca or what happened in 1930 or other times past and just simply state, “Hell I don’t know!”, we don’t know when Soon Is, but it will come and when all of us agree when Soon Is, we will damned sure let you know. I simply tire of all the friggin’ hype.
Grumpy Ranger
“It just irritates the Hell out of me with all the Silver Gurus who write articles for The Doc, that mostly they whistle through their asses, and “Soon” gets farther and farther away.”
Ranger, you need to understand something here. All of the folks you mentioned have one thing in common. They are all trying to sell people on the IDEA of buying PMs. They know that the dollar WILL tank. They know that when it does, the bond market will implode in a rather spectacular fashion. They know that the combo of these two events will impoverish millions of Americans who hold all of their net worth in paper assets that will also go POOF! when these things happen. What they do not know, and what NO ONE CAN KNOW, is W-H-E-N this will occur. They do understand the very human capacity for putting off doing what is necessary until the very last minute, however. Hurricanes Rita, Katrina, Sandy, and others have demonstrated this time and time again. In their zeal to combat this human tendency to delay until the last minute, they lay the story on us a little thickly. Is it overdone? Yeah, probably, for the beginners out there. For the more experienced types, like most of us here, we can ignore most of this because we are already convinced that stacking SOME silver and gold is a fine idea. We also know that no one knows when the S will HTF. So, we pretty much ignore all that kind of talk. As a gentleman of 71 years, I fully expect that you know the difference between BS and buckwheat. If not, then I am NOT coming to your house for pancakes! ;-)
Blind Faith: Believing as truth, what is explained by a recognised authority.
Place a $1.00 bill and a $5.00 bill on the table in front of you. Examine them closely. The only real diffrence is the printing. Blind Faith.
Place a 1/10th ounce gold Eagle, and a 1 ounce Gold Eagle on the same table, and examine them closely.
The truth is self evident.
I have a sneaky suspicion that once silver goes over 40 dollars per oz there will be no shortages at all.
Shortage is a relative term. The SLV buys hundreds of tonnes and the price doesnt move. You or I go buy a tube of ASE`s and we either can`t get them or pay a big premium.
Hold what you have, buy when you can. And as the Rolling Stones said “Time is on our side”
@Silver Dollar
Dim Bulb huh? Well myself and 330 Million people live here in The Colonies. From what I can determine Silver Dollar, you are Canook, Limey or Aussie. But The Good Lord has spread Morons all over our earth, so I could be wrong.
You have stated PAY ATTENTION on comments in two eparate articles and to clean up your act you said that you meant that you were paying attention. PAY ATTENTION in those two words means that you are chiding people for not paying attention. Now you state what happens today affects tomorrow, but in another post you carry forward 50 years of hollistic crap that has absolutely nothing to do with the world today! So I am a dim bulb? Sheesh, I am high wattage compared to your burned out 15 watt bulb.
Havea nice day!
Pollokeeper—-
It’s my suspicion that once Silver goes over $40 the wind will really start to blow & the trees will be shaken for a while….It’s only going to take a few Hamptons Golf buddy’s to wake up to what’s really going on and there will go the dominos……
As far as premiums go—we ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
Keep saying and genuinely believe that we could see $6 per unit above spot for ASE’s PDQ and that’ll just be a warm up for $10 over spot….when we hit that…. the disconnect between paper price and the Phyzz price will be in full bloom…with skin so hot it’ll melt your pop cycle!
The price of silver has to be seen in relation to the inflation-adjusted buying power of the $50 bill. In 1980 $50 had the buying power of $300 or more today. $50 silver in 1980, up dramatically from $4 an ounce a couple of years before, was a substantial partion of a person’s weekly take home pay, maybe 15-20% of that paycheck. Spending $50 then was a decision not made lightly. buy an ounce of silver or buy groceries for a week. Today $50 barely makes a dent in a week’s groceries but silver is $30 an ounce, 10% of its inflation adjusted 1980 price.
If silver went to $50 an ounce the media would fill the airwaves with 1980 videos and sound bites of people lining up around the block to sell silver, not buy it. The percentage of present day owners of silver number in the low single digits. Buyers would flock to the LCD to get while the getting was good. Owners and stackers would sit back and smile. Back in 1980 the sellers filled the stores because $50 was a chunk of change. 10 ounces of silver, little more than the purse or sock drawer of 90% silver, a commonplace coin even as late as 1977, was worth $400, well above than a week’s take home pay. The selling frenzy had people stacked outside the silver buyer shops.
Silver at $50 will develop into a feeding buying frenzy because at that price it’s still cheap. Sellers will be few since those few bought and knew that day would come. The buyers will still probably do well since $50 is a platform, a talking and pricing point in the feeding frenzy, as silver rapidly moves upward.
Silver at $50 an oz in April 2011 was not an accident. It was a real price surge based on real value, knocked down due to its threat to and impending destructive effects on FIAT. The need to keep people trapped in the paper currency paradigm is paramount. Silver must be kept down.
That will end as all FIATcurrencies do. Time is on our side as we patiently wait for the seminal event that tips to silver to utter scarcity that makes anything talked about today little more than annoying chatter.
AG, my friend, you are sending me on a trip down memory lane with talk like this. When I graduated from college, the 1st time anyway, I had a job at a local college earning a whopping $600 a month. Of course, gas for the car was $0.35 a gallon back then and my favorite cookies, Nutter Butters, were $0.53 a package. They still make that same size package these days but it is closer to $4.50 than $0.50. Bread back then was 5 loaves for a buck. We had a nice apartment with a pool for $125 a month. Yeah, we didn’t have a lot of money then but it sure went a lot farther than it does now.
Too bad for me that I was not into silver at the time. I could have scooped the stuff up with a ‘dozer for cheap. I would have had to hold it a while but would have spent most of it during the silver price spike in the early 1980s. It was abso-freakin-lutely unreal what could be bought with a handful of silver coins back then. A brand new Colt Python .357 mag was one thing I was drooling over. They wanted about $550 in fiat or $13.50 in silver face for it. I had no silver then and the price was about 3 weeks pay. Too much for a young feller to drop on a gun, no matter how sweet its glass-like 3-lb trigger pull was. I ended up settling for a S&W Mdl 19, also in .357 mag, which I still have after all these years. It was only $219 then. The good news is that after firing hundreds of rounds through the Smith, it too now has a very nice trigger pull. :-)
You are many things Ranger, but not a silver basher. I think my style is more like Cranky, the 8th dwarf. It’s good to have the fatuous gasbags talking about silver. When things really get interesting, these people will probably get some mainstream coverage. Then they can talk their asses off if it gets people into silver purchasing and shoot the price up the charts. Now their talking is just an echo chamber.
@Pollokeeper said… “you have other ideas besides investing in metals please let us know.”
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You and anyody else reading this will think this sounds crazy, but I have been buying dressers off Craigslist and at garage sales, cleaning & fixing them, and reselling them for a VERY NICE PROFIT! Everyone has too much sh!t and needs a place to put it – and dressers apparently serve this purpose.
I am saying with all honesty that there is definitely a demand for dressers; I don’t know how it is in Panama but here where I live this works!
That’s a great idea!!! However, we don’t have garage sales in Panama. Used stuff is very expensive here. Most people keep their stuff until if falls apart. Just a different culture. In the US, you can furnish your entire house with garage sale stuff and thrift shops if you want. I have neighbors who only have a few plastic chairs for furniture and they sleep in hammocks.
SHAZAM! And an idea is born! Buy a lot of US garage sale stuff that looks decent and is cheap, fit it or paint it, as needed, and then ship it to Panama to sell in a Garage Sale Outlet Store. This could work, folks, and generate beau-coup bucks. :-D
This has more to do with the movement in price in the metals for the last week.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nb20130119a2.html
I understand the stories about so-called shortages in silver and all the technical gurus that have been chirping that the metals look good on the on the charts ( give me a freaking break). Have the charts ever looked bad for the metals according to these pom pom wavers of the metals? The answer is no. IMO, take Sinclair and put him with all the others. No one and I mean no one can predict anything with any accuracy in this market. It’s impossible with the central banks acting the way they are. When you don’t have a honest interest rate, how can you have a free market? Can we agree to this simple concept? Do we all agree that the free markets are dead and every transaction is manipulated? If we can, then let’s understand that these guys really don’t know much more than anyone of us. How in the hell can you predict price in this environment? Many here on this site are stackers. It really doesn’t matter the price movements on a day to day basis unless you are buying in huge volume. IMO, take all these charts, opinions, and theories with a grain of salt. They have little to no value. It’s just one person’s opinion.
can someone tell me how much one of those gold bars weighs ??…..the ones the Queen saw
it would be so easy to inventory……just put a number on each one…..it’s only ONE item to inventory,
not like an electronics tech co that may have thousands of items to inventory
If that was a “London Good Delivery Bar”, it weighs approximately 400 ounces and is worth about $680,000. That’s IF it is all gold and not mostly tungsten, of course. Fortunately, there is a very simple test for this if one has the right equipment. The speed of sound varies quite a lot in various metals. An ultrasonic “chirp” can be sent into a PM bar and the speed measured via timing its reflection. This is basically how radar works through the air, albeit with radio waves. This speed is about twice as fast in tungsten as it is in gold. Additionally, it is possible to create a sonogram of such a bar which will show any areas that are made of any material that is not gold. Other metals have a much different density, so a quick measurement of the dimensions and a weight are all that is needed to determine that.
Until the paper markets (read derivatives) or the dollar or euro implode things will continue as is. The cartel will pump and dump to take profits and all we can do is take as much physical we can away from their control.
It doesn’t really matter unless one has no source of fiat to pay the bills. If it rockets up, it’s profit. If it goes sideways or down it’s opportunity.
@ Ranger
I do not understand the cause of your irritation. I started buying silver at level 11 dollars per ounce. Also I had bought at $ 40 ounce. And last year I bought at 27 and 30, too. I see no reason for depression or excitement. I am very pleased with my investment in silver, regardless of any form of counting investment efficiency.
If you are so much worried about that silver grow slowly, perhaps just do not make sense to make investments in silver for you. Why do you need so badly to torment your soul? Leave it deal and start living a happy and fulfilling lives.
Trust me, if you would be so much upset, then you will spend on doctors and drugs a lot more money than you will get profit from your investment in silver.
I’m enjoying the chatter and different viewpoints. Solid community here.
In investing huge role played by our temperament. Many people do not like football because goals in football is very rare. These people just do not have the patience to watch this boring game without result.
Others people do not like basketball, because in basketball scoring goals – it is very often.
It all depends on the rhythm of human temperament. If the rhythm of his temperament coincide with football, he have interest to see a football. But if him temperament coincide with a hockey match temperament, he more likes hockey. We can not change it, it is the our nature.
@Silvermail, you made a good point about the influence emotion has on investing. I would argue that the most successful investors are those individuals who are capable of putting aside ALL emotion when making their financial decisions.
I would also point out a study Turd (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com) performed last year, in which he determined that if an investor regularly purchases a certain dollar amount of Silver over a given time-period – say, once every two weeks – that he will end up with a lower price per-ounce than if he purchases a certain weight amount of Silver over the same time-period. I believe this to be mathematically correct, although it would be very interesting so see this proved by the proper equations & various examples.
Great Stuff Guys and Gals I’M PAYING ATTENTION which makes me think, maybe I’ll buy some more tonight if I can find me a deal. If not tonight then maybe tomorrow or the next day while I can. Keep Stacking until your gut tells you to stop. Lol.
@Marchas45 said… “Keep Stacking until your gut tells you to stop.”
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…or your wife tells you to, in which the stacking goes ‘underground’ in more ways than one. And why not? Some husbands hide worse things than stacking PM’s frim their wife!
Is anybody Paying Attention?
Oh my God Yes Mam, Paying Attention is my middle name! I know that Silver Dollar is listening now, you think? If it weren’t for Silver Dollar none of us would be PAYING ATTENTION!
to Ed_B….thanks for the info………so if my math is correct, then it would take 80 bars to equal one ton of gold.
Seems pretty easy to put 80 bars of gold on various planes, boats on a daily basis and pretty soon, any country would have
physical possession of all the gold they owned. The CB’s are just making it hard to acquire the gold these countries own.
may you live in exciting times…………..we sure do