The latest forecast by LEAP/2020 predicts the global economy will be ‘sucked into a black hole’ by October, that the Fed’s QE∞ will be ineffective at staving off the collapse, and that all signs indicate a massive downturn (‘without modern historical equivalent‘) in the economy is ‘dead-ahead‘.
By the end of October 2012, the global economy will be sucked into a black hole against a backdrop of world geopolitics heated white-hot. Suffice it to say that the coming weeks will, according to our team, carry the planet away in a hurricane of unprecedented crises and conflicts.
So, in this GEAB issue, LEAP/E2020 sets out the list of the seven key factors of this double shock without modern historical equivalent:
The very painful end of the US anaesthetic is at the crossroads of the seven key factors of a double shock of the coming weeks
Because it is indeed that. As we have underlined on many occasions in the GEAB, the United States has, since the beginning of this crisis, refused to face reality (5) by having increasing recourse to financial, monetary,… (and military) subterfuge to try and mitigate the consequences of the crisis. All this however is proving to be ineffective at the end of summer 2012, in spite of the trillions of Dollars thrown down what is proving to be a bottomless hole.
The best proof is the Fed’s September 13th decision to maintain its Operation Twist programme of Treasury repurchases by adding to it an unlimited programme (in time and amount) of mortgage backed securities repurchases (40 Billion USD/per month) to try and revive the US property market and, through the latter, employment and consumption. The Fed is aware that this decision will cause a backlash and damaging consequences internationally. In fact it has been hesitating for months ahead of a new QE3 (6). But, in trying to avoid a socio-economic implosion and a stock exchange collapse on Wall Street ahead of the November 2012 elections (7) whilst trying to save its own credibility under heavy attack from the Republican camp, it chose “Psychological Easing” rather than “Quantitative Easing”.
Indeed all the signals are already on red: employment isn’t moving up, the jobs created are paid very much less than those lost (9), poverty is exploding throughout the country (10), … and the US multinationals (11) have increased announcements of falling profits for the second half of 2012 and 2013, returning to the levels of 2008/009, typical of a recession period (12).
As LEAP/2020′s forecasts and economic predictions have been extremely reliable, is a massive downturn in the global economy imminent, and is this what forced both the ECB and the Fed’s hands in announcing QE∞ last week?