Well, you are in the cold in Tahoe…
Burn it for some heat

(commercial longs + commercial shorts) / (total open interest * 2)
 
*2 because for each open interest contract that exists 1 long and 1 short

BY the way, I do not write the titles.  
 
I submit the article to DOC and he decides what the title will be because my subject title for the article is merely the date of the COT.  ;)
 
He is the one who […]

@XC yep!  Chances are we will never know because they could be hiding metal anywhere.
 
Or NOT!
 
The only way to find out is for every speculator long to stand for delivery all at one time.

ON the first point I agree paper investors give more critical thought to where they place their futures bets from.
On the second, that is exactly correct.  The strong shorts know with absolute certainty when they […]

I think that is only logical.
 
In addition, a lot of the time these miners contract a huge amount of future in the ground at a specified price so they have to hedge one way or the other over time to maximize […]

There are two categories of commercials, the producer merchant and the swap dealers.  The miners are primarily in the swap dealer category.  This is just a temporay situation where the speculators are buying a lot […]

It’s dishonest because it is both mathematically and idealogically impossible for the commercials to becomes net long.  Has nothing to do with what anyone thinks I say.  I don’t think anyone who writes these […]

4OZ, I think the message is pretty clear, they have loaded up longs because they intend to let the price rise at some point soon though it could dip into 27-26 range before they let it go up.

Luigi, the […]

@spaniel
That is the volume in March which is now the month that determines the current spot price.  Not every month is what is considered a delivery month.  March is the next big one.
Spot price is always […]

thanks for the nice comments RG and PF!

i just try to give an interpretation of what i see in the numbers and on the price chart irrespective of the rumors we hear from the physical scene in London.  Sometimes […]

Matthew,

This is exactly the aspect that confuses everyone and a good question.

Price does not necessarily go up or down just because short positions are being taken.  Remember, in a futures market there […]

The system may in fact be very close to its mathematical collapse point but the real question is will it ever actually get to that point?

Thousands of articles have been written on this subject and if you had […]

I pretty much eliminated the idea of a big short squeeze on the cartel, with finality, from my thinking a long time ago.

I now believe the cartel is too smart for that.

In order to have a short squeeze of […]

@UG

That is a very good point.  Which means they basically accept huge losses in short covering with the future prospect of even more huge gains on the long side and they still show a profit.  Its all funny […]

@PowerBall

Good question.

Yes, they had a huge short position and what he is saying is that huge short position has been used to “manage” an orderly rise to the price gold is at currently.  Without the cartel […]

If those shorts were bought at $35 and the price is now $32 then each ounce is $3 in the money.  The long that matched up to that short at the point of contract has long since been sold.

Whether it is buying or […]

Andy,

I read all the articles where commentators make statements aboiut the LBMA and they have their inside moles who give them information on orders than have been placed or are going to be placed if price […]

Andy,

Forgot to mention how the totals are posted.  Notice on the commercials they have 93,188 shorts and 36,184 longs which is 57,004 net short.  I merely subtract last weeks net short total from this week to […]

@Andyz, and XC

Good questions and analysis!  Nice to see someone actually thinking about the numbers and trying to derive some conclusions…

Several things to be aware of here.

First, there exists 1 long […]