Submitted by SD Contributor SRSrocco
North Dakota is producing oil at a record. However, it will come at a cost.
If oil production is to be LONG TERM, it has to increase in a linear fashion. North Dakota oil production fails this test of time.
Its huge exponential increase will be matched by an exponential decrease on the way down:
Now, if you want to see a LINEAR INCREASE IN OIL PRODUCTION…. HERE IS THE USA:
So, we can see that if oil production is to be LONG TERM, it has to increase in a linear fashion. North Dakota oil production fails this test of time. Anyone who disagrees with me, just stay alive for a few more years to watch the exponential decrease… sorry I wish I had better news.
About everything else… so be it. All those huge reserves of oil in Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and etc is OIL SHALE… not to be confused with SHALE OIL (tight oil). That stuff is shale that has to be crushed and then made into oil. Its actually far worse than TAR SANDS which has an EROI of 2-4/1. Oil Shale is not even commercially viable at $100-120 a barrel…. and its EROI maybe closer to 1-2/1.
I hate to break the DON”T BE A DOOMER…GIVE ME SOLUTIONS PARTY, but the minimum EROI of OIL for an advanced society to sustain itself is over 8/1.
I guess we can just keep on DREAMING THE GREAT WHITE WAY….until reality hits us on the forehead.
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Did you know that oil is NOT a fossil fuel?
Did you know they drill for oil at over 35000ft way below where there are any fossils?
Did you know that oil is the second most plentiful liquid on Earth?
Did you know that oil is bubbling out of once thought empty oil wells?
Did you know that there is a thought that oil is produced deep in the magma of the Earth?
Did you know that Peak Oil is another scam like Man Made Global Warming?
Eh, im not sure if peak oil is real or not but i can understand SRSroccos points more than yours. Just bring out some charts or something?
Nothing lasts 4ever, everything comes to an end.
you are right , the brains still dont know where pil has come from and there is a lot more oil coming from old fiellds now ,especially with ther new technology . peak oil is just the same fear hype as global warming and H1N1 . a load of crap . lol did you get your flu shot today ?
GBS…. while I appreciate your regurgitating of PEAK OIL MYTH SOUNDBITES, evidence is mounting to prove otherwise. People who believe peak oil is a scam or myth, fail to understand the falling EROI – (energy returned on invested). Let me provide some factual data:
US OIL & GAS EROI’S
1930 = 100/1
1970 = 30/1
2000 = 11/1
2012 = 8-9/1??
Basically, the ratio means how many barrels of oil are provided to market per barrel of cost. In 1930, the USA provided 100 barrels of oil at a cost of 1 barrel. By 2000, it had fallen to only 11 barrels of oil per 1 barrel of cost.
Cutler Cleveland of Boston University did the study on those EROI ratios. They don’t lie. Let me give you a few more EROI ratios:
SHALE OIL = 4-5/1
TAR SANDS = 2-4/1
US ETHANOL = 1.2/1
Furthermore, Charles Hall and David Murphy who are the leading researchers on the EROI, have found that an advanced society such as ours needs a minimum of a oil & gas EROI of 8/1.
So… all those POOR SLOBS thinking they have done something wonderful by sending me emails providing me with the information that the western USA has trillions of barrels of oil reserves locked in OIL SHALE (not to be confused with SHALE OIL) fail to comprehend that OIL SHALE is not even commercially viable at $150 a barrel. And, its EROI is far worse than TAR SANDS.
The United States FOOD GROWING & SUPPLY SYSTEM has an EROI OF 1/15… thats right a huge net energy loser. This food system in the USA has been able to function because of the high EROI of global oil & gas that the United States has hoodwinked with monopoly money. As the EROI falls, the FOOD SUPPLY SYSTEM collapses.
Lastly, another tell-tale sign that things are getting very interesting for global oil exports is this graph below:
If you don’t believe in PEAK OIL… at least you can open your eyes and look at PEAK NET OIL EXPORTS, which took place in 2005. If past trends are forecasted into the future, AVAILABLE NET OIL EXPORTS for the 157 net oil importers (minus China-Inda fall from 35 mbd in 2010 to only 16mbd by 2020.
I wonder if we as humans are going to finally wake up and smell the coffee.
“ I appreciate your regurgitating of PEAK OIL MYTH SOUNDBITES”
Why be so touchy and disparaging? My facts are real and not “regurgitated”.
I could easily say that your figures come from the same sources that say there is no shortage of Silver. That unemployment in the USA is in single digits and that the US economy is recovering. But why should I belittle someone because they appear to be be deaf to others who might have the temerity to disagree.
C&P from FB side …
When governments around the world remove their jack-boots from the necks of energy exploration and production operations and THEN we see a decline in overall output … I’ll ‘buy into’ this scenario. Until that transpires, I point out that we’ve been hearing this same refrain from governments since oil was first commercially developed back in the late 1800s.
Whether Peak Oil is real or not, one fact is inescapable…….gasoline and all other forms of energy will become more expensive nearly every year of your life. This was true for your grandparents and parents as well. Real or not, live your life & buy your homes, cars and appliances with this in mind. Even if Peak Oil turns out to be BS, the worst that will have happened is you would have saved money.
I_S
Are we not about to be hit by a triple whammy–regular inflation from massive money creation + end of the petrodollar + drought driven food shortages?
Wow
HOW THE PUBLIC IS BAMBOOZLED BY BIG GOBERMENT
PATFIELDS….interesting reply. So you think BIG GOVT is keeping the OIL MAN from bringing lots more oil on the market…aye? This is one of those nice objections that fails the test of logic. Why?
There are still folks I come across who tell me there is all this oil capped in the ground in the United States as well as plenty of oil reserves. I normally reply to them by asking them this question..
WHY WOULD THE BIG OIL COMPANIES SPEND $BILLIONS TO GET OIL IN THE GULF OF MEXICO???
Let’s first take a look at an old OIL DERRICK that has found a gusher:
Now, the energy investment that went into this circa 1930′s oil production was 100/1… (EROI)… or 100 barrels produced for market for 1 barrel of oil cost. If we look at what is taking place in the GULF OF MEXICO…. we see a much different picture:
Not only did THUNDERHORSE RIG cost over $1 billion dollars, they also had to build and lay miles of pipeline on the ocean floor. Does anyone have an idea of the costs of all of this technology to get to DEEP OIL?
Furthermore, why on earth would the BIG OIL COMPANIES spend billions of dollars, deal with hurricane force winds, salt water errosion, and high tech workers if there is plenty of easy to get to oil on the US MAINLAND??????
People unfortunately do not have a clue as to how to use LOGIC to figure out PEAK OIL, or the FALLING EROI. I hear so many reasons why peak oil is not true, unfortunately… they do not cut the logic grade. Big Govts are not holding back oil production… sure maybe a bit in this country, but not in most of the others.
I could explain how Saudi Aramco is working their wells to keep oil flowing out of those 50 year old fields, but let me tell you…it ain’t pretty. They have been injecting millions of gallons of sea water into their oil fields to keep the pressure up and the oil flowing, however this is coming at a huge cost. Their water-oil cut is increasing at a higher percentage every year…and at some point in time, the well just dies….
Anyhow, THUNDERHORSE was supposed to produced 250,000 barrels a day for many years. Unfortunately for their owners, it peaked very quickly and never reached 250,000 barrels a day. I guess this must have been because of BIG GOVT.
Well, there you have it…. BIG GOVT and their BOOTSTRAPS around the neck of oil companies causing this oil decline..
SRSrocco – “Furthermore, why on earth would the BIG OIL COMPANIES spend billions of dollars, deal with hurricane force winds, salt water errosion, and high tech workers if there is plenty of easy to get to oil on the US MAINLAND??????”
BECAUSE GOV’T/EPA HAS REGULATED THEM OFF THE MAINLAND! AND THERE IS A REASON FOR THAT YOU DO NOT SEEM TO BE AWARE OF….YOU USE GRAPHS AND PHOTOS TO BOLSTER YOUR POV THAT SEEMS RIGHT OUT OF A MSM PRODUCTION….
SRSrocco, the oilmcompanies go after gulf oil like they go after artic oil like they go after sshale oil and oil shale because it pays and they make a lot of money . until they quit making a lot of money then they will con tinue .
you showed a picture of an old fashioned “gusher”. back in the day that was the first kind of oil they ever got and then they developed the pump to pump oil up fron greater and greater depths . and they developed technology more and more . now, with the new fracking technology they have changed the way oil is looked at .
back in the day we would drill a hole down to whatever depthmaybe a thousand feet , maybe 10,000 feetand go through a zone of maybe 20 feet or 8 feet or whatever .
today we get down to the zone and then follow it for a mile ,then frac it with water and then start pumping . in the past we have just been scratching the surface . now , we are getting the whole meal deal .
fields that never produced much and then dried up are being re-workedand producing many times more than they have ever produced . sure this costs more but the price is more and the production is more . maybe there is a peak somewhere but not anytime soonwe are just beginning to get the reall oil !
i believe that peak oil is a fear mongering idea put out by the powers that be . just the same as global warming and the super flu. do you believe in man-made global warming ? did you get you flu shot ?
Hi,
Great article as always.
Do you know anything about thorium powered reactors regarding EROI, safety issues, supply issues etc.
BIG TOM… do you really think Brazil has the same problem with the oil drilling in their country as you claim that we do with the EPA??? Petrobras which is a semi-public oil company in Brazil is spending billions to drill for oil off their coast. Do you think the Russians are spending billions of dollars in drilling for oil in the CASPIAN SEA… because they have their own version of the EPA.
China is now drilling for oil in the South China Sea…. do you think they have an EPA over there telling them they can’t drill onland??? That is one of the most polluted countries in the world.
A huge number of countries are drilling for oil off their coasts, because they have already found most of the easy stuff onland.
WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU FOLKS???
I am really surprised at the lack of understanding of the oil industry by JOE-BAG-OF-DONUTS.
And lastly…. the falling EROI does not lie.
THIS IS THE REASON WHY CHINA IS NOW GOING TO DRILL OFFSHORE
Just like the United States who peaked in oil production in 1970 (US decided to go to the Gulf Of Mexico big time), the Chinese domestic oil production has peaked at the end of 2010… they plan on drilling offshore to tap into more oil reserves:
OK, thought I should step in on this one. With 32 years in the oilfield from drill floor to board room level, currently involved with two deep water harsh environment exploration projects for a major US independent and a foreign NOC (national Oil co.) I think I might be able to offer a fairly qualified opinion.
SRSrocco is right that we are having to put more energy in per barrel of oil discovered&produced. The move to deep water drilling is driven by the exploration portfolios containing a much higher percentage of large targets to aim at. Onshore has been very heavily explored and you do not see many huge new fields being discovered there….certainly no sub-salt monsters like Brazils Tupi development.
Big oil operates globally and regulatory pressure in various areas is just something we deal with (drilling moratoria aside). Many might be surprised to hear that we actually want our operations to to be as safe and environmentally responsible as we can make them – we live here too. The majority of modern rigs are designed and usually operated as “zero discharge”……many of the passing trawlers and cargo vessels are far more polluting than we are.
As for the whole Bakken and Eagle Ford thing…it sure keeps a lot of US land rigs and service companies busy and allows some amusing claims for “reserves”, but the wells come in quick and produce really well for a month or two then rapidly fall off to a much more sedate rate.
Again spot on with modern agribusiness…it’s the science of turning oil and gas into food, which sounds pretty good until you scratch the surface and find out how energy and yield inefficient it is, let alone how damaging it is to the soil. Post Soviet Cuba provides some hugely valuable lessons on how to transition from large scale petrochem agribusiness to growing plentiful food in a sustainable way.
@59LesPaul…..advanced gas cooled 4th gen pebble bed reactors set up to be slight fuel breeders, rather than burners, offer inherent safety advantages, net fuel gain, low ratios of long term radionucleide production and also address proliferation issues through advanced reprocessing requirements. I dont have EROI figures, but by design they look very attractive. Timeline probably 2020-25 for significant inroads into energy supply though.
2004/5 I was very concerned with the potential impact of “Peak Oil” so I researched it heavily and on balance it now worries me far, far less than the topics for which I joined this excellent site and forum. So thank you Doc and all you regular value adding contributors, I will just keep on converting the surplus FIAT from my oilfield earnings into physical silver and work on using some very clever 18th century US farming methods to build up the productivity of my small farm.
@MaplesUK Great post. Question for you. Is natural gas more of a problem when recovering subsalt oil.
Maples UK An oil man going for silver is a good testament to the value storehouse of silver. Going back to 1970 a gallon gas cost 25 cents (US prices) , whether it was 90%, 40% or 0% silver.
Now it costs 16 times as much for the same gallon. A 90% silver quarter now buys one gallon for $4.00 with $1.00 of FIAT FRN left over. Enough for a cruller or bear claw. Not a bad deal all things considered—-if you saved a huge bag of 1964 quarters in your basement Thank you for the analysis of the petroleum business in the modern world Maples.