Doc-Since I last communicated with you I did increase my phyzz to 12,000 oz up from 10,000 oz. I am a believer or I would not be in the phyzz as much as I am but after a while you must start questioning what has happened over the last 40 years. Silver was at $50 over 40 years ago!
It then went almost to nothing and sat there for 30 years! Then a fire was lit when we started having problems- It jumped to $49 not even breaching the old high set 30 or more years earlier, and was then pounded back to $26. Everyone is ecstatic about the recent move to $33.
Don’t shoot me but big deal! After QE1 AND QE2 AND OPERATION TWIST AND EUROPE GOING DOWN THE TOILET HERE WE ARE AT $33! WE’RE SITTING $17 CHEAPER THAN SILVER WAS OVER 40 YEARS AGO!
YOU ALL SAY IF THEY KEEP PRINTING SILVER WILL KEEP GOING UP, WELL THEY PRINTED AND PRINTED AND ECONOMIES COLLAPSED AND EUROPE HAS FALLEN AND HERE WE ARE AT $33! WHAT WILL THE BIG CHANGE BE? I HAVE READ AND LISTENED TO EVERYTHING I CAN READ AND LISTEN TO FOR ABOUT A YEAR NOW. I HAVE HEARD IT ALL BUT WE ARE AT $33.
I KNOW I WILL GET KILLED WHEN THIS IS PUBLISHED AS I HAVE BEEN MADE FUN OF BEFORE FOR SOME OF MY QUESTIONS BUT THAT’S OK- I’M A BIG BOY AND CAN TAKE A LITTLE HEAT. BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS THAT SILVER SHOULD BE WAY UP NOW AND ISN’T. YOU SAY IT WAS MANIPULATED BUT THIS TIME THE BULLS CAN BEAT BACK THE CARTELS. WELL, THEY HAVEN’T YET. THEY ARE STILL BEATING US. MAYBE THEY WILL ALWAYS BEAT US. WHY IS THIS TIME SO DIFFERENT?
I think with Thursday’s Fed announcement it is now clear why things are different now. The money printing will continue to infinity because there is no other option. The cartel is conducting a managed retreat in gold and silver. They have been ever since 1999. After 15 months of consolidation and correction for gold and silver, it is time for another managed retreat by the cartel.
Gold and silver will make new all-time nominal highs before this move is completed. I expect gold to clear $2,000 and silver to challenge $75 over the next 18 months.
It is true that silver traded above $50 over 30 years ago, and has yet to even equal that level in nominal terms, much less real, inflation adjusted value. Please realize however that silver traded above $50 in the 1980′s for a span of about a minute, and this was the very peak of it’s entire bull run. It’s not like silver traded in a range near $50 for any length of time during the last bull market. We are nowhere near the end of this current bull run in silver. The fact that silver is still $16 off it’s all-time nominal highs, and more like $350 off it’s real inflation adjusted all-time highs indicates that silver is still a screaming buy, and that the current bull run is nowhere near it’s final parabolic ascent.
Perhaps an examination of silver’s long term exponential uptrend channel constructed by our friend IVARS from TFMetalsreport will help:
Regarding the chart IVARS describes silver’s logarithmic technicals:
Before the 2008 liquidity crunch , silver was trading from the middle to upper limit of this channel , in line with increasing USA debt.
After the 2008 crash and QE1 , silver clung to the lower limit of the channel ( nevertheless its exponential, just re-calibrated -from a lower starting point)
After QE2 in 2010, it took a super-exponential move to the upper limit again, culminating in April 2011.
The following correction dragged it down to thelower limit again, but it managed to reverse before QE3 ( just a month before).
What next? Again, as minimum, it should move along the lower limit, so exponentially up. If so, the increase may be rather slow, reaching $35 by the end of 2012, but no big crashes. So for those who stacked or went long in the $40′s and still have averages close to $40 and remain underwater-in most adverse conditions for silver imaginable ( but not realistic )- You should be level by the end of 2013, and after that be happy.
Personally, I suspect it might move to the middle of the channel as a support again, so end of 2012 =~$49 . People are more cautious now then in 2010 as they still remember 2011 April crash and LONG correction afterwards. After 2012, for some time at least, any super-exponential move to the upper limit of this channel will correct back to middle of the channel as it did prior to 2008. Which means corrections after 2012 all will find their bottom >$40.
B, your 12,000 ounces is an excellent stack and I am confident that you will be more than pleased with your decision looking back just a few years from now, just like those who purchased near $8 in 2008 should be more than pleased with their decision.
If you plan on adding to your stack further please consider utilizing SD Bullion for your purchases. Our goal is to provide our readers with the opportunity to acquire physical gold and silver bullion at prices as close to wholesale as possible, as well as providing some revenue to support SilverDoctors’ operations.
Keep up the good fight, remember the hardest part about enduring an entire bull market is not just being right- it is being right and sitting tight. Remember that gold and silver primarily are insurance against devaluation of your savings through counterfeiting known today as quantitative easing. The fact that they have been suppressed for years by the cartel and currently offer one of the best profit opportunities in history (in our opinion) is icing on the cake.