SILVER COT REPORT 8/17/12
Commercials added a huge 3,202 longs on the week and an even larger 7,752 shorts to end the week with 46.12% of all open interest, a big leap upwards of +1.45% in their share since last week, and now stand as a group at -117,010,000 ounces net short, a massive addition of 7,750,000 more net short ounces from the previous week.
Large speculators picked up 897 longs while covering a sizeable -1,011 short contracts improving their net long position to 77,935,000 ounces, an increase in their net long position of 9,535,000 ounces from the prior week.
Small speculators increased 174 net longs and also increased 531 shorts for a net long position of 39,075,000 ounces a decrease of -1,785,000 ounces net long from the prior week.
Commercials went on some long position raids this week exactly as expected (see my article on gold last week).
Remember that the small specs picked up 698 shorts last week. They did not sell like the large specs did. They must have looser stops and are convinced a steeper price drop is on the way and added more shorts this week.
The commercials have made some very large bets. Notice the spreading category for the disaggregated commercials as it swelled by 43% this reporting period. The commercials have added 8,546 short contracts in the last three reporting periods, far outnumbering the longs they have added.
Thursday’s 40 cent jump in price was probably an effort to force the small specs out of their shorts and entice more long buying. As of this afternoon, we have not seen that long buying materializing. If price does not drift upwards Monday and Tuesday you can expect a significant raid to occur. I do not believe there will be significant long buying on the part of the speculators this coming week.
Perhaps the real direction will be told in gold?
As always, for your convenience, if you would like to contact the CFTC and express your views to them, I have provided you their phone numbers and I hope earnestly that you fill up their phone lines: http://www.cftc.gov/Contact/
firstname.lastname@example.org Chairman Gensler
email@example.com Commissioner Chilton
firstname.lastname@example.org Commissioner Sommers
Somalia@cftc.gov Commissioner O’Malia
email@example.com Commissioner Wetjen
firstname.lastname@example.org Director Meister
See you next week!