“A win by Romney is generally seen by investors as a downside risk for gold,” says Joni Teves of UBS. “Nobody wants to do anything until the elections are out of the way.”   ”The real “Romney risk” for the yellow metal has nothing to do with fiscal policy. Instead, traders and investors are focusing on the likelihood that if Mr Romney wins the November 6 election, he would replace Ben Bernanke with a more hawkish chairman of the Federal Reserve when the latter’s term expires in January 2014.  If that means a change in direction from the Fed’s current experimental and super-accommodative monetary policy, gold could suffer. Recall the sharp sell-offs earlier this year when expectations of quantitative easing were deferred.”

Gold will not suffer when there is a change and a move away from ultra, ultra loose monetary policies. As was seen in 1980, gold’s secular bull market is likely to end if the Federal Reserve again achieves positive real interest rates.  As was seen in 1980, gold will only fall towards the end of the interest rate tightening cycle – this could take many years.  “Likewise, an Obama victory may be the green flag gold bulls have been waiting for.”   The 45th U.S. President is less relevant to the gold price than the wider global monetary, macroeconomic, systemic and geopolitical fundamentals – all of which remain extremely positive for gold.  [Read more...]