Q&A With The Doc: Will I Ever Get Back to Even on My 40% Underwater Gold & Silver Position?

April 21, 2013 By 58 Comments

SD reader Dave writes:

I Purchased $20,000 in gold and $60,000 in silver two years ago. I was lead to believe they were going way up due to money printing and zero interest rates. So far I am down 30-40%. All the fundamentals are right for higher prices but both metals have gone way down. Can these prices go up without a complete collapse of the dollar? I figure I only have about 10 years left to live. Will I ever get even? The only people touting the metals now are the people that make money on sales.
Thanks,  Dave.

Doc: All major secular bull markets have major corrections.  As to your bad timing of purchasing $80,000 in gold and silver 2 years ago, I believe the bull market will forgive bad timing- provided you have the intestinal fortitude to be right and sit tight. [Read more...]
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Silver – Keep It Simple!

March 12, 2013 By 9 Comments

kiss

If silver and gold prices correlate, on average, with the national debt and debt will increase until a crash/implosion/hyperinflation event restructures our economy, then you can bet on much higher silver and gold prices in the future.
Volatility will increase. Gold accelerated into a new high in 2011, and silver almost exceeded its 1980 high that same year. Both markets have been ugly, from a bull’s perspective, since then. Expect future parabolic rallies and vertical drops to become more intense in the next four years.

Expect more frightening and silly statements from Goldman Sachs et al about gold going down to $1,200, while they prepare to book fantastic profits from the rally they will encourage, when the time is right for them. The names differ, the game is the same. It hasn’t changed in hundreds of years.

If you want stress, play the futures market in silver. If you want a long-term investment, buy silver at these low prices and wait for the powers-that-be to devalue the various Dollars, Euros, and Yen that we use. [Read more...]

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The Silver Chart Predicting $200 Silver by 2018: Silver’s Parabolic Up-trend Channel Suggests Massive Silver Move is Imminent

February 12, 2013 By 44 Comments

silver parabolicToday’s chart of the day examines silver’s 12 year logarithmic parabolic up-trend chart that began in 2001. 
Silver is just now approaching it’s parabolic up-trend line for the first time since 2009, and only 2nd time since 2002.
The last time silver touched its parabolic uptrend line the metal rose from 8 to $50 in 3 years.  The only other time since 2002 that silver touched it’s vertical up-trend line was in 2003, after which silver went on a tear from $3.50/oz to $21.35/oz over the next 5 years.

Silver is now approaching it’s vertical uptrend line near $32.  Should the same percentage gain be repeated as the prior two occurrences, silver would need to rise to over $200/oz by 2016-2018.  [Read more...]

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US Dollar Triple Hammer Time

February 9, 2013 By 32 Comments

triple hammerSubmitted by Morris Hubbartt:

If the implosion of Lehman could only get the dollar to 89.11, is there really any hope for the bulls now?  I don’t think there is.  I’ve labeled the dollar chart the “Triple Hammer Chart”, because I see 3 powerful chart patterns, and all of them are very bearish for the dollar.

Silver is setting itself up for a nice rally.  The set-up is very similar to last fall. At the bottom of the chart, note the bullish breakout of the Aroon indicator.    Silver is my favorite asset in the precious metals group, for adding fresh risk capital.  The Bollinger bands are tightening, and that is usually followed by an explosive move. [Read more...]

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Silver Prices – The Big Picture

February 8, 2013 By 10 Comments

imagesSubmitted by Deviant Investor

Question: What do May 2004, January 2005, August 2005, June 2006, October 2008, February 2010, September 2011, December 2011, June 2012, and December 2012 have in common?

Answer: They represented significant price lows in silver, AND those lows were confirmed by the weekly stochastic (14,3,3) indicator and the weekly TDI Trade Signal Line (13,5) as shown in the following chart of silver prices since 2004. Approximately once per year the weekly stochastic and weekly TDI indicators have given a “buy-signal” in the silver market.

The ten year chart of silver prices is plotted on a logarithmic scale and shows a highly volatile exponential increase in prices over that ten year period. Note the higher trend line extends to approximately $100 by the end of 2013. [Read more...]

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Guest Post: The Case for Silver

February 5, 2013 By 12 Comments
silver-price2

Submitted by Deviant Investor

Silver has no counter-party risk. It is not someone else’s liability. The same is NOT true for hundreds of paper currencies that have become worthless, usually because the government or central bank printed them to excess to pay the debts of governments that did not control spending.

Since Nixon “closed the gold window” on August 15, 1971 and allowed the dollar to become an unbacked paper currency that could be created in nearly unlimited quantities, the gold to silver ratio has ranged from a high of approximately 100 to a low of approximately 17.
There is room for silver prices to explode higher, narrowing the ratio to perhaps 20 to 1. When gold reaches $3,500 (Jim Sinclair) and subsequently much higher in the next few years, and assuming the ratio drops to approximately 20 to 1, the price of silver could approach $200 per ounce, on its way to a much higher number, depending on the extent of the QE-Infinity “money printing,” panic, hyperinflation, and investor demand. [Read more...]

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Silver’s Up 675% Since 2001; Here’s Why It Will Go Higher

January 29, 2013 By 33 Comments

SILVER-Silver-Spot-Price-stock-market-chart

As I have written in these pages before, I expect silver prices to outperform gold prices in the years ahead. That opinion hasn’t changed.

As gold prices started their flight upwards back in 2002, silver prices followed a similar pattern. Below is a price chart of monthly silver prices since 2001—when gold was trading just below $300.00 an ounce. [Read more...]

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Coming Speculative Mania in Silver Will Dwarf Nominal Highs, Set New REAL High

January 12, 2013 By 47 Comments

Zeal011113ASubmitted by Adam Hamilton, Zeal:

Back when silver’s last secular bull climaxed, the US median household income was under $18k!  Today it is around $50k.  Across the nation new houses averaged just $76k while new cars generally ran less than $6k.  A candy bar cost a quarter.  It is grossly misleading to look at decades-past prices without first converting them into today’s dollars which we all understand.  That creates a righteous apples-to-apples comparison.

Today’s secular silver bull, while erratic, is much more consistent than the 1970s one proved.  Silver’s gains have been more gradual, the periodic sharp surges as greed waxes excessive haven’t been extreme like the 1974 example.  This implies today’s bull has a much larger investor constituency deploying capital more gradually over time.

Thus today’s bull is considerably more robust, it has a stronger foundation than the 1970s one.  This supports the thesis that today’s secular silver bull will ultimately prove larger than the last one.  The better the foundation, the more investor capital deployed before that crazy popular-speculative-mania phase sets in, the higher silver can potentially rocket when the general public finally comes storming in.

So despite all the silver bearishness out there today spawned by silver’s recent weakness, its secular bull looks far from over.  Popular speculative manias cap secular bulls, and though the spring-2011 upleg was strong it was nothing remotely close to mania-caliber.  Silver is going to see much higher highs, dwarfing April 2011’s near $50 real, before this secular bull has fully run its course and finally gives up its ghost.
[Read more...]

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Are Gold & Silver in a Bull Market- Or is Government Devaluation Simply Going Exponential?

January 10, 2013 By 35 Comments

imagesGold and silver are NOT going up in value. An ounce or gold or an ounce of silver is still the same ounce. It is the imaginary “value” of the fiat you hold that is being debased and is relentlessly dropping. It is a subtle, but necessary change in “belief” one must always recognize, [and there are many who do, just not enough]. Instead of 250 or 900 units of fiat, it now takes 1650 units of fiat to purchase the SAME ounce of gold, and 30 units of fiat, instead of 5 or 20 units to purchase the same ounce of silver.

Make no mistake about it, it is the central bankers that are leading governments around by the nose, and by proxy, governments leading
people around by the nose, and that “nose” is inhaling “lines” of fiat.  Unless cured, all addictions end badly, and the only “cure” central bankers have for ever-increasing fiat is, ever-increasing it more.  [Read more...]

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Dow Gold and Gold Silver Ratio Charts Remain Bullish

January 3, 2013 By 7 Comments

We continue to favour the Dow Gold Ratio chart as a good indicator as to when the gold bull market might end. It is likely to reach the levels seen in 1980, close to  1:1 or the Dow at 5,000 or 10,000 and gold at between $5,000/oz and $10,000/oz.

This will be an indication that the gold bull market will be in its final innings. Provided of course we do not return to some form of gold standard whereby gold bull markets and bear markets will again become confined to history.

We continue to be more bullish on silver in the long term and believe the gold silver ratio should fall back to the geological 15:1 level as was last seen in 1980. This means that silver continues to be more attractive from a return point of view.
[Read more...]

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Silver Would Need to Reach $700/oz to Achieve 1980 Value Based on Market Cap

December 13, 2012 By 43 Comments

David Morgan’s ResourceInvestor.com has released a 4 minute clip with Ryan Jordan, author of Silver- The People’s Metal on why modern portfolio’s should hold tangible assets such as PHYSICAL SILVER rather traditional financial assets like corporate and government bonds and securities.  Jordan points out that at the peak of the 1980 bull market in silver, the value of the world’s silver bullion reached 10% of the market cap of the entire US stock market.  In today’s terms, this would put the value of the world’s silver at over $1.5 TRILLION, or approximately $700/oz!

Full clip below: [Read more...]

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