Submitted by SD Contributor SRSrocco:
THE NEGATIVE NEWS FLOODGATES ON SILVER ARE NOW WIDE OPEN
As I sit here and read comments on this blog as well as articles on silver, I see a trend taking place. Silver investor sentiment is hitting rock bottom (maybe will fall even more) and the psychology is now in the HANDS OF THE FED & MEMBER BANKS. They have done a very neat trick this past year using all methods of manipulation and negative hit pieces on silver in the MSM. You don’t need alot because you get BRAIN DEAD ANALYSTS who come in behind to fill in the rest.
I am simply amazed at what I see. I have been in silver since 2002, and have never looked back. In the past 10 years I have seen silver bug extremes. As I see the reports coming out about higher comex inventories, low premiums, low silver eagle sales, and etc, the sentiment falls even further. It is a NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP and it is working HOOK LINE and SINKER…. just as the FED designed.
Here is a typical part of an article about silver:
Demand for silver fell in 2011 for the first year in four as Europe’s debt crisis sapped industrial use of the metal found in solar panels and photography, Thomson Reuters GFMS said in a report on April 19. The decline in ETP assets yesterday drove holdings to the lowest level since August.
“The price drop drives fund selling and that in turn drives prices even lower,” said Sun Yonggang, an analyst at Everbright Futures Co., a unit of China’s largest state-owned investment group. “Silver isn’t holding up as well as gold because it is still primarily an industrial metal.”
———————————————
Demand for silver fell in 2011…. that’s the big line there. Let’s take a look at GFMS newest 2011 chart on silver demand:
World Silver Supply and Demand (million ounces)
(totals may not add due to rounding)
Supply
| 2010 | 2011 | |
| Mine Production | 751.4 | 761.6 |
| Net Government Sales | 44.2 | 11.5 |
| Old Silver Scrap | 228.7 | 256.7 |
| Producer Hedging | 50.4 | 10.7 |
| Implied Net Disinvestment | - | - |
| Total Supply | 1074.7 | 1040.6 |
Demand
| 2010 | 2011 | |
| Fabrication | ||
| Industrial Applications | 500.0 | 486.5 |
| Photography | 72.1 | 66.1 |
| Jewelry | 167.4 | 159.8 |
| Silverware | 51.2 | 46.0 |
| Coins & Medals | 99.4 | 118.2 |
| Total Fabrication | 890.1 | 876.6 |
| Producer De-hedging | - | - |
| Implied Net Investment | 184.6 | 164.0 |
| Total Demand | 1074.7 | 1040.6 |
In 2010 silver demand as 890 million ounces. What’s funny is if you go to their website, you will notice that their total 2010 demand figures were 878 million oz. Somehow they adjusted their 2010 figures higher by 12 million ounces. If they revise figures each year, will 2011 turn out higher?? Who knows. Furthermore, the Fabrication demand in their old 2010 figures was 487 million. They revised it up to a cool round figure of 500 million.
The interesting thing to note is the IMPLIED NET INVESTMENT (this just means total investment). They state that there was actually less investment buying of silver in 2011 than 2010. How can that be if Coin & Medals (most official coins such as Eagles & Maples) were up from 99.4 million to 118.2 million?
The answer to that question is this…. GFMS has to make sure that the TOP SUPPLY FIGURES match up with the BOTTOM DEMAND figures. They don’t want any surpluses or deficits in this accounting category. However, they will show a so-called surplus of 260 million oz this year due to their CREATIVE ACCOUNTING. That is for another post coming later.
Lastly, the real news is in the SUPPLY CATEGORY at the top. Here we can see that Government sales from China and Russia fell off a cliff from 2010… 44 million down to 11 million in 2011. Also, Producer Hedging declined a substantial amount of nearly 40 million oz. Together that accounted for nearly 70 million oz less than 2010.
The total supply was down 34 million oz from last year so the folks at GFMS had to do some creative accounting to make it look like INVESTMENT DEMAND was lower along with Fabrication demand.
FOLKS…. THE JOKE IS ON US.
-SRSrocco
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I am here.
Why invest in a product that is criminally manipulated with NO prosecution for those doing the manipulation
IF J6P did to a banker – what the bankers have done to him
J6P would go to Prison – yet the bankers go free
The SEC & CFTC are frauds & BALLESS wonders & the people now are realizeing PM’s arent worth investing in when they can be manipulated & ripped off so easily
Untill the SEC & CFTC send a shitload of bankers to PRISON what do you expect from the public who has lost faith in the system
This is why one should not invest in silver, but only buy and hold the physical thing.
Bullish or Bearish of Paper Silver Moves is Meaningless. It’s just a guessing game to call or predict a manipulated price. It also depends on the time frame. I’m bearish short term on paper prices until about July 4th only because of the COT trend and seasonal influences. I also think, in order to boost Obama’s chances for a second term, they’ll try to send this price down in anticipation of the inevitable QE3 coming in the fall after we see a stock market correction. But I’m just playing the guessing game. I’d be concerned if there was evidence physical silver is being sold based on short-term gyrations of paper games. The notion that real stackers would sell their physical because the price has dropped is a non-starter.
True stackers don’t try to value their silver and gold in terms of paper garbage. Paper is just a game.
SRS I’ve seen this chart of silver source/ use for the last 3 years. The absorption of silver is moving upwards through 2011 from the numbers I worked. For 2011 the total use of silver was about 112-122% of supply if you take the draws against silver production year over year. This draw is taking down more silver than is presently available. China and India will each absorb 2,500 tons of silver in 2012. That comes to a collective 225,000,000 ounces, 25% of the total silver available in 2012. This draw should produce a shortage by August according to a post I made on the old Silver Doctor site. While my prediction might be off by a month or two, recalling how quick silver went from being a dog to top dog in the last silver heist courtesy of the Hunt Borther, being an underdog right now may be the best place for silver bulls, lying doggo against the time when silver will shine again. The old saying of buying when everyone is selling and selling when everyone is buying should prove its value with silver as well as gold. I have been doing some serious stacking on those premises IMO
YO Jake
us metal stackers are not the problem – (WE) understand the problem
J6P sees the problem & says screw it
They are now just starting to get a tiny handle on how the bankers & the US government with the Media’s help
are screwing them
Stacking it high and wide.
Silver is the only Universal investment out there.. Manipulation all by itself should be more then enough reason to invest in the metal.. The manipulation clearly won’t last forever.. This should be common sense..
Although the numbers are good entertainment for a stacker they shouldn’t be focused on… That information is better used by someone who is looking at trading the metal… When stacking you need to be concerned with a couple key solid facts…. Can I get the metal I want? Are my oz growing? Does this new ammo in my 338 really expand on impact like they claim? Other than that I can’t be concerned with the numbers mainly due to the fact that they are scued from manipulation….
Keep Stackin!!
We are all Silver bulls long term, but I think we all realize this year will be similar to 2008. We are all waiting to see what the Fed does at the end of June. In the meantime we are buying hand over fist till QE3 or whatever they call it is announced.
Hopefully, the silver bulls are just bidding our time….I know I am.
All I can say is…..
KEEP STACKING AND ENJOY THE LOW PRICES - YOU WOULDN’T COMPLAIN IF YOU WENT TO YOUR FAVORITE STORE AND SAW THAT PRICES HAD BEEN CUT BY 35% FROM LAST YEAR WOULD YOU?
SO DON’T BITCH ABOUT LOW SILVER PRICES…. UNLESS OF COURSE YOU ARE ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE WHO THOUGHT THEY WERE GONNA JUMP IN…AND JUMP OUT REAL QUICK AND MAKE A MILLION DOLLARS….(KEEP DREAMIN…CUZ THAT AIN’T EVER GONNA HAPPEN)
Add at least 4 oz a week
57% Bullish Here: http://www.forexpros.com/commodities/silver-historical-data
No offense Doc regarding your random dated eagles. I still plan on picking up a couple hundred, but when we buy anything other than ”hot off the presses” 2012 silver, are we really taking silver out of the market or are we just taking someone’s grampa’s junk silver or 1990′s eagles from one safe to put in another? If WE want to make a difference in creating a shortage, shouldn’t WE be buying only what’s just now coming into the market instead of what’s already been out of it for years?
Sentiment Scoreboard: http://www.forexpros.com/commodities/silver-scoreboard
Hey guys, im forced to liquidate some phyzz this month as i lost my job, im pissed off to sell at this prices. Ill be a buyer again in 2 months but i have a feeling that 30 is the bottom, and i will loose a lot of silver and paper until i get my fiat income running
Is there a better option than to sell phyzz now? If the prize stays in 30-35 in 2-4 months no problem ill get them back, if the prize gets lower good, but now i have a feeling we are going upwards.
Of course there are better options than selling your silver but it all depends. You need to access how long it might take to get another job, how much you might have in other savings or valuables such as jewelry to sell instead, or ability to get a loan/loans from credit card companies or friends.
Cutting back on your expenses and relying on unemployment and/or taking a loan from your 401k are options. Liquidating your 401k from this last employer is the best option.
Moving to a better jobs location could be an option. Getting a home equity line is another. Even 0% credit cards can be an option. You could even ask your mom for the money.
Maybe it’s time to return to school for a job skill or you could just capitulate and flip burgers…There are a lot of things you could do. You could look at your own skills and start a business—maybe you’re an expert computer programmer or a brilliant artist—maybe you could paint or write something and sell it.
Here’s a website that contains links:
Help! I Lost My Job!
Unemployment tips and resources for the recently laid off
Here are tips and resources to help if you have just been laid off or
you suspect that you will soon be laid off. Check our other guides to job hunting, earning extra income, and ways to cope if you hate your job. Also check out the sidebar for links to job boards and other job hunting resources.
READ MORE:
Help I Lost My Job!
silver bulls have had their tails lifted and poop chutes invaded.
they are gonna be plenty mad when they finally get turned around…
http://www.dumpaday.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/misc-bull-fighter-gets-gored-by-bull.jpg
Where are the bulls?
Waiting patiently for the tides to turn, their stash of silver safely hidden away..
SRS has become one of my fav silver analysts lately, concerning fundamentals. The guy does his homework.
I am stacking all I can afford…..
Every FRN I can spare turns to silver!
God I love some of the answers and questions on here, great feeback! for me, As for silver demand going down, Yea Right, Stack, Stack, Stack. I Love 90% Silver easier to Barter with.
40OZ,
Buying older Eagles (or whatever) that have made it back to the
secondary/resale market has the same net impact of supply reduction as
buying brand new eagles, other than perhaps small issues with differing
transaction costs. Supply and demand define the market and those
factors are not taken on a year-by-year basis for Silver Eagles or other
silver products when we are talking about pure bullion. Imagine a big
swimming pool full of water. You can take water out of the shallow or
deep end with a one gallon bucket and it’s not going to make a darn bit
of difference to the reduction of supply if you use the same size bucket. A gallon is a gallon.
There is one significant exception: some silver eagle dates had much
lower mintage and command higher premiums. This can also
be true for older, harder to find unopened 500 coin monster boxes for
particular years simply because some collectors will be willing to pay a
bit more for that specific year. But these examples show price
differences related that have nothing to do with raw bullion
supply/demand. When the silver in question is a true commodity (i.e.,
nothing distinguishing it from any other silver), you “help” reduce market
supply regardless of the mintage year of the items you’re buying.
Hey, they manipulate the unemployed figure as well as silver price. I really don’t care what their figures say because the fact of the matter is silver gets a little more scarce every year. If they wish to manipulate the price lower, then the sheeple can buy the next generation I-Pad a little cheaper and I can stack a little higher. So, in a way, I have to thank them and I know China thanks them. Yipppeeeeee!
Silver is on sale! How can you not be a bull?!?!
Will continue stacking, slowly but surely!
Cost averaging is my friend. Can’t make a bear out of me…
Still working on the free ounce lottery!
40oz
Screw the manipulators. They will get whats coming soon enough.
I think we all have a strong conviction that we are in the right investment, but now is the hard part – waiting. I follow Martin Armstrong and think the man is god with his timing accuracies. He believes there will either be a big spike in September followed by a 2 year bear market or we’ll hit important lows in September and rise after that on a y-y basis.
Ok lets say 2012 with the bad economy all over the world and industrial use is down due to it. Slow sales of all the little gagets,computers,phones,solar panles. Now this year we are seeing high oil,gas, energy prices inflating even higher. There for the value of silver will clime do to the cost to pull it from the ground. You may say the spot will dictate the price. No we will pay what we need to to get that oz. Or the mines will not operate to get it for us. Higher oil cost, Higher minner cost, Higher silver/gold cost, The worst the dollar looks. The worst the dollar looks, The more demand for silver/gold. This will be what dictates the value. Energy will be the tipping point
PS: Dose anybody read about Peak Oil?
I’m planning on buying more till I can’t. We’re working on planting a tree farm here and it’ll take years to see income.
The joke is well and truely on us . . . the proof . . .
off ebay.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-07/silver-investor-industrial-demand-jumped-in-2010-gfms-says-1-.html !!
btw I missed posting a coment on 2oz “prep tips” due to the log on issues earlier in the week. Go to your local charitable organisation’s opportunity shops and check the bargain cutlery bin, I have nearly a kilogram of sterling cultlery at about 50cents a pop, seriously ! and check local garage sales.
And I just picked up a couple of beautiful 10 oz bars for AU$32.50/oz. This type
Cheers – rake that Silver in.
damn the picture didn’t stick, well – this is the link
http://www.apmex.com/Product/42432/10_oz_US_Assay_Office_Silver_Bar_999_Fine.aspx
GL